Capped Contributions

Campaign Finance Reform on the Horizon as Congress Considers Optional Public Financing

The only news on this today so far is covering Sam Waterston's involvement with the plan, but word on the street is that on Wednesday, Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Arlen Specter (R-PA) will be releasing a proposal to overhaul campaign contributions in a voluntary program titled the "Fair Elections Now Act," that would make congressional elections ::gasp:: fair.

Amidst discussions about the interplay between legislators' response to AIG's needs (as well as other government entities) and AIG's previous campaign contributions, it has come finally to the center of some legislators' attention (and more importantly their legislative agenda's) that it is time to begin reforming campaign finance for Congress. Of course, there is also discussion about reforming the presidential campaign finance system, a system already in place that was famously rejected by Barack Obama in his 2008 election for president because he was outraising his competitor by vast margins (insert random article talking about Obama's rejecting of public finance here).

Obama's Money
McCain's Money

What will this new legislation mean for our elections? Potentially, if widely accepted by congressional candidates (as the system is voluntary), the following could come from this system:

1. Electeds beholden only to their electorate - money raised by campaigns must come from their state. Currently, candidates can accept money from all over, meaning the means for election (the media and communications necessary to win an election) can come from all over the country, where special interest can influence a state's electeds with money.
2. A potential decrease in negative campaigning - with a limited campaign war chest for elections, candidate's will be more likely to focus on their positive message, rather than focusing on the negative message regarding their opponent(s).
3. Better Legislation - with elected officials that are in office because they are good for the people, rather than the system, legislative priorities will shift - lending to a government that will not provide a safety net for incompetent or dangerous companies that are hurting our people now (read here: the AIG / Banking Fiasco).

I will say that with regards to the final point above, I do believe that original loosening of the restrictions on banking was done with the best of intentions for the government and its people, but that the continual deregulation that led to this ridiculous current position of our financial system could have been avoided had that deregulation been stopped (which more legislators - not beholden to financial lobbyist - might have fought).

Anyway, long and short of it is this:
If we truly see a campaign finance reform system presented on Wednesday that is actually palatable to congressional candidates, we may have the opportunity for the people to recapture their lost government; leading to a renaissance of government that could catapult us into a new era. This may be an idealistic, or even idiotic belief, but I am content to play a fool if the potential for a reformed and truly democratic republic is possible.

I wish we were organizing tea parties around this issue rather than the budget...

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Today's Suggested Reading
I just started this book today but it is already turning out to be fantastic in the first 75 pages. This account of human history is along the lines of Jared Diamond in its excellent depiction of the human development arc.
NonZero: The Logic of Human Destiny
Robert Wright

Hold on to your Teabags

Teabag protests are breaking out all over the country as Obama's support dips. And everything else that actually happened today.

First, let's look at news that slipped under the radar with the AIG debacle:

Secretary Gates has signaled an end to Stop-loss policy in the Military - this means that the military is actually going to start upholding its contract with military personnel regarding the length of their duty and will pay those it must hold an additional stipend for extended duty.

The GIVE act passes - Almost perfectly along partisan lines, but this legislation has moved out of the House to reauthorize and reform national service laws.

The RNC has seen a dip in Fundraising - But not in a really significant way suggesting that Michael Steele has had no real effect, or rather no overwhelming effect on RNC fundraising.

Attorney General Eric Holder makes a couple big announcements - including a shift in position on marijuana prosecution and a consideration of lessening regulation of anti-trust laws for newspapers.

The Pope says no to condoms while en route to Africa

Gay Rights Ban Signed by U.S. - So while we are debating the legality of it here in the United States, we are proud to say it's not okay to discriminate gays if you're not the U.S.

But most of these stories were overshadowed by the stories surrounding AIG and CEO Liddy's testimony regarding the bonuses that have now been paid out. Of course there are great stories that are riding along with the AIG mess including the new chic teabagging that is happening around the country which will culminate on April 15th. The Nationwide Tax Day Tea Party organized by New American Tea Party promises to be a very interesting event as we have already seen instances of people teabagging their local water sources in protest. These teabaggers are getting quite the media coverage for their antics. Bob Cesca, has published a fantastic little explanation of why that is a little funny.

It is always interesting to me when groups of people get together to throw little protests like throwing tea into the river because they don't agree with the administration. Just a quick question: Do you think throwing tea into a body of water is going to get your Representative or Senator to change their minds? As though they are sitting in their office on Capitol Hill going, "My goodness, my constituents sure have dumped a lot of tea into Lake __. I better ask Liddy questions harder before they get really angry."

This situation with AIG and Bank of America and all of the other banks is a real tragedy and those on the Hill and in the White House are working really hard to fix the problem. You dumping tea into the Potomac is not going to fix it. Neither is mailing it to the White House. And your protests are going to lead to panic, which as I explained yesterday, is exactly what we DO NOT NEED in this crisis. So let the boys and girls in D.C. do their work to try to solve this issue and stop protesting. You're not helping the matter any.

Obama came out with a very measured response to this ridiculousness on the Hill and ya'll should take a hint from him. It's time to take a little responsibility and get through this, not point fingers and whine.

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Today's Quote
"Though dissenters seem to question everything in sight, they are actually bundles of dusty answers and never conceived a new question."
- Eric Hoffer, Reflections on the Human Condition (1973)

AIG: Ain't It Grand

Financial Crises lead to Financial Arms Race. But who will have the bigger guns?

AIG is the topic of today with many stories popping up from the news to the blogs for the overwhelming response from pundits and politicians regarding salary bonuses to executives of the company - bonuses that were promised last year, before the company ended up being owned by the U.S. Government. Freshman Representative Peters of Michigan has proposed legislation that would effectively tax those bonuses at 95%, with the remaining 5% to be taxed by state and local government nixing those bonuses in their entirety. Which has caused other financial institutions to consider pay loopholes that will help their executives dodge dealing with this abusive taxation of bonuses.

At the same time, a document is floating around Washington, and now on the web, that ties the potential risks of an AIG collapse to the global financial system (wonderfully recapped by the NYT). In this document, AIG lays out a doomsday scenario for its collapse that could nearly be set off by a sneeze in Asia, and end in the collapse of many Nations' Financial Markets. This is more-or-less simplified by two different scenarios began by the same lack of confidence.
1. Investor Confidence drops - In this case, a government cashes in on AIG's holdings and in the face of being accountable for the insurance written in that state, AIG is forced to cut itself into oblivion.
2. Policy-Holder Confidence drops - In this case, life-insurance policy holders cash in on their policies at a rate too high for AIG to handle at the present moment, leaving AIG in a position where it would have to liquidate subsidiaries to payout to policy holders.

I was in a bank in September where a woman was desperately trying to pull the money out of her bank account because she thought the bank was going to collapse.

Here's what we're talking about: A Financial Arms Race
To discuss Arms Races, you can use some great little tools that have been developed, namely, Game Theory's Prisoner's Dilemma. What we are seeing right now is an iterated non-zero sum game in which one player (in this case there are a very many players that act independently, though often in the same ways essentially being balanced with the U.S. Government / The People on one side and The Financial Institutions on the other) responds to the other in a reciprocated fashion in order to either punish or subvert the other player in the hopes of eventually pushing the loser into a stalemate or checkmate (the case where one player has no potential reciprocation for your opponents' last and final play).

Potential devastations of Arms Races, as demonstrated abundently during the Cold War, include Mutually Assured Destruction MAD which is the basis of the movie Wargames. The basis of MAD is that when a game is played out over and over again the players will continue to arm themselves to the teeth in anticipation of, and because of rumors that there will be, a threatening action by the opponent. So the government is threatening to restrict pay, the companies change pay structure. Eventually, however, one of two things will be reached:
1. the Equilibrium - This would be the point where delicately balanced relationship between the two sides leads to a mutual benefit
2. the Devastating Global Collapse - basically, all of the worst parts of the AIG Paper.

So let's put the two pieces together from above and think about what is coming in the next few weeks / months and consider that maybe it's time we reconsider our stances on things to reach that equilibrium instead of focusing on punishment and working towards a devastating collapse

The Opinion:
1. People: Do not try to cash out your life-insurance policy
2. Countries: Do not attempt to seize AIG's Assets in your country
3. AIG: Renegotiate and stop doing things that are going to piss off your stock holders
read here: the U.S. Government / The People
4. Realize that this game doesn't have a particular end in sight, so stop trying to make the final move and thus escalating the fight more quickly but instead realize that if we do lose, it's going to be a really big loss. So let's compromise a little bit so we can all get through this. Someone's gotta be the bigger man here and step down a little bit.

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Today's List
Here's a List of Games in Game Theory. When you think about the choices you make in your life, it's amazing how most of them can be simplified to one of these.

Party Plasticity

Steele Continues to get Pounded, Obama Meets with "New Democrats," Senate Dems Waver in Support of EFCA, and Arlen Specter Might Become a Democrat!

Well, it's for sure been an exciting week for politics. The GOP is not alone in its quest to redefine itself as President Obama finally identifies himself as a New Democrat. This paves the way for unifying a party that has such broad boundary lines, that lying somewhere in the middle will help bring together a party that's definition at this point in time is not the Republicans.

So what else is going on while Obama tries to win over centrist Dems in the House? Centrist Dems in the Senate, not actually paying attention to the legislation that they are debating (like Kent Conrad, Ben Nelson, and Mark Udall) are stalling on legislation like EFCA. EFCA, is good legislation that, while painful for Republicans and union-busting businesses, is good for the working class (see my previous posting on benefits of EFCA). It's a little frustrating when your party has started to ignore its loyalists in pursuit of the middle. It would help if we got that third party now!

But the greatest news of the day comes from a wrap-up put together by DailyKos suggesting that Arlen Specter may switch parties for EFCA. Now, clearly there are places where Democrats and Specter have disagreed in the past, but all-in-all, during the last half of his 28 years in the Senate, Specter has made some bold moves against his own party's stances and if you look at his key issues, he's more liberal than many of our sitting Democrats.

So, on behalf of the Democrats, I welcome you Senator. Please come join us in 2010 and we promise we'll keep you in your seat! You should see what happens when you have Union money behind your campaign! Especially in PA!

Meanwhile, GOP Chairman Michael Steele is getting slammed again. This time for wavering on Abortion (see: Here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here). And of course this posting that covers how the Republicans would oust him, and there are many more. Steele...I think it may be the end of the line for you.

I will be out of town for the next couple of days to return on Tuesday

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Today's Political Thought
Even if Specter moves to the left on EFCA, it will take 60 votes to end a Republican Filibuster...
You do the math on EFCA, here's 2007's votes
Even if we get Franken in MN, look at the 2 Colorado Senators, Conrad and Nelson above. EFCA isn't looking healthy!

Going Galt

Atlases of our Society are pissed and are considering societal fissure

I have to start this by saying that I was really hoping to cover the EFCA. I was also urged to cover the budget today, all of which I will dedicate great care in dealing with this week...but I have to take some time to really flesh out this phenomenon - and this is my format for that.

To begin, an operational definition (note: this definition has been derived from readings that are generally from the persuasion of the oppressed and therefore intimate a personal tie to the phrase) is provided:

Going Galt: (verb)
1. to lead the oppressed creative and successful individuals of a society to begin a new society that is not socialist in nature.
2. to remove oneself from an oppressive state that has actively taxed (literally or metaphorically) you as a producer of wealth within that society

I want to start by talking about the issue that is at hand that leads those who are considering going Galt to do so. This seems to have something to do with the income tax increase of 3% on any income over $250,000 that has been proposed by the oppressive, and now apparently Socialist, Democrats. For those of you out there who do not understand the tax tables that you have your CPA handle each year, that means that you get taxed one rate for your income of $250,000 and then a 3% higher rate for your income that is over $250,000. So if you make $255,000, you will get taxed 3% more on $5,000, not on $255,000. So stop trying to figure out how to make less than $250,001 a year.

Now that we've covered that and already 20% of you have stopped going galt, let's talk about another side of this very complicated polyhedron - I want to talk about patriotism. The reason I want to talk about patriotism is because apparently those of you going galt have very loose definitions of patriotism, namely that if we're following you, you are patriotic, and if we disagree with you, then you're going to shove off and start a new country. That's not patriotism, and I'm pretty sure that Democrats stuck around for a couple of years while your boy Bush played War with our Tonka toys in the Middle Eastern sandbox.

I'll tell you something else, how much of that 3% that you are going to get taxed do you think is going to go to socialized medicine and other social programs instead of trying to pay down a very expensive war that we've carried on now for a seven years?

Here's the deal. You are not going to leave the country because;
1. You still hold out hope that your bitching and moaning is somehow going to turn back time on this issue and we'll forget that we need the money in the first place
2. Your special ass isn't going to make any money in a new country since you'll have no industry and no real capital as you're not really going to get a really good trade value with U.S. Currency then.
3. Your CPA will find some more loopholes for you and you'll end up not really paying much more anyway.

Finally, I would like to say something to Representative John Campbell (R-California) who posted a delightful little plea on The Hill Blog and Townhall.com begging that Obama reconsider the 3% increase in income tax:

I'm not going to worry about the potential collapse of the world because of a slight increase on income taxes. Your friends are not going to disappear off of the face of the planet, we're not going to see a mass exodus of people making over $250,000 and they are not nearly ready to commit to leaving this country, nor are they going to fold their businesses in revolt. They are going to continue to make money and building industry and providing jobs because they can't really do it anywhere else (and certainly not as well as here). Let's cut the end-of-the-world, fear-mongering rhetoric and let's start talking about solutions.

Tomorrow, EFCA and what it's potential pros and cons may be...

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Today's Suggested Reading
"Don't Think of an Elephant"
George Lakoff
Summary Blurb: "...much of the success of the Republican Party can be attributed to a persistent ability to control the language of key issues and thus position themselves in favorable terms to voters. While Democrats may have valid arguments, Lakoff points out they are destined to lose when they and the news media accept such nomenclature as "pro-life," "tax relief," and "family values," since to argue against such inherently positive terminology necessarily casts the arguer in a negative light."
http://www.amazon.com/Dont-Think-Elephant-Debate-Progressives/dp/1931498717/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1236646413&sr=8-1

Prop 8 goes to Court

Prop 8 discussed in terms of "is." Thank you Ken Starr

Proposition 8, the most watched ballot initiative in the 2008 presidential election, has come to a 90 day hiatus as the California Supreme Court discusses the legality of its original placement on the November ballot in the first place. Here's the deal, and I hope the California Supreme Court is listening very close right now, this is a slam dunk for you!

Proposition 8 should not have been placed on the ballot without being approved first by the state legislature at a 2/3 aye vote

Here's How I know that:
Two years ago, the Supreme Court issued a stop order on Gay Marriages coming out of San Francisco saying they were not legal.
A year ago, the Supreme Court ruled that not allowing Gay Marriage was unconstitutional and struck down your previous hold on San Francisico Marriage Licenses for Gays. Thereby saying that Gays have the right to marry.
Then, an interest group put a ballot measure up that would limit the rights (rights that you had secured in your previous ruling) of Gays to get married. Here's the tricky part. That would substantially change the California Constitution as you are limiting the rights of a group of people.

Therefore, regardless of what you think about the rights of gays to get married, the political process, the will of the people, or whatever - You have to, because of your previous ruling and the posting of this ballot measure, rule it illegally placed on the ballot and strike it down.

On a side note: California State Legislature, you need to find someway to get a civil unions bill out to the Governor that he can sign so this whole thing can be done with. Or you can expect another Prop 8 in 2010, and it will take far less voters next time to win.

So the Opinion:
1. Strike down Prop 8
2. Enact Civil Unions Bill
3. Enjoy the stability in your state economy due to shared partnerships

The RNC's New Bag. NOT!

RNC Chairman Michael Steele tossed about like rag doll. Meanwhile, conservative entertainer Rush Limbaugh continues to spew extreme values.

It's time for a little disclosure. I am a pretty strong Democrat. And by that I mean that I have worked in Democratic politics for a couple of years now and I want everyone to know before reading this that I may display a slant to this opinion. Please note: there is a slant to all opinion

Rush Limbaugh. You are the undisputed king of the Conservative movement. Please continue your ranting tirades through the airwaves. Please continue to spew your hyper-conservative grumblings and point your finger at those who mock you from centrist or just left of centrist (and even sometimes just right of centrist) viewpoints. More fuel for the fire baby!

Has anyone in the RNC considered that maybe Michael Steele is what you need for this party right now? You have elected a leader that wants to broaden the base of your supporters, thereby increasing your electability and your response is that Conservatives will not donate to the RNC?

So, what? Your small group of conservatives (current polls putting you at about 25% of the country) are going to elect individual's with a majority? Yeah, last time I checked majorities in a two candidate system need 50% + 1. With a third candidate, you'll need at least 34%. Sounds like ya'll are gonna get a little screwed.

I am a strong Democrat and I believe that the Democratic Party's platform falls in line with my own beliefs. But I want another party in this country. I think that both the Democrats and the Republicans have widened their platforms to accept more of the electorate and I wish that my party would lean a little bit more to the left, just as you, Mr. Limbaugh, want the Republicans to lean to the right. But that can't happen before a strong third party assumes the vacuum of elections or else your opposition will defeat you. Besides the partisan issues, then an even larger part of this country will be unrepresented in politics.

But maybe that's what it will take for the 35% or so of you out there that have no party affiliation to come together and start fighting the two poles of politics in the United States instead of whining that you don't fit into a party.

So the Opinion:
1. Get rid of Steele - He's making you electable and likable;
2. Swing further to the right - As long as you have a minority in opinion polls and are being referred to as "in exhile" you should definitely not consider making your party more palatable as that would cause people to agree with you;
and 3. Where's our third party? - I thought we might get a third party but I suppose the two are entertaining enough that a third would actually make politics serious in this country and people would actually get to vote on candidates they agreed with.

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Today's Political Thought
According to FEC Guidelines, a minor party must receive 5% or more of the total vote in a presidential election to be eligible to receive public funding for the next presidential election.

Independence in our Courts

No Introduction, let's just get into it, eh?

West Virginia judge benefits from massive 527 support and turns around to support 527's major donor in appeal.

It is interesting to me that there is so much concern for a justice's impartiality regarding decisions. The U.S. Supreme Court is discussing the issue as a case for determining when a judge should recuse themselves from a case that they may have some vested interest in. When you're talking about anyone who is relying on the campaign contributions of interested parties (read here: special interests) you will absolutely and always receive an elected official, be they of any branch of government, that is beholden to those that have put them into office. This is why the U.S. Supreme Court is a lifetime appointment - so one does not have to campaign. The same is true for our congresspeople and our executives, you pay enough to get them elected and they give you a little bit of legislative pork.

Further, there are 39 states that currently elect judges at some level of the judiciary and many are claiming that judges should not be elected to insure impartiality. However, that is not the issue. The issue at hand is:
1. Yes, all people are provided a right to free speech
2. Yes, you can choose to exercise that free speech during a campaign
3. Yes, that can come in the form of a donation to a campaign
4. NO, that cannot come in the form of buying a seat

When an individual, organization or company is capable of spending $3 Million on a 527 organization that is trashing an individual running for office, that company should be censured and / or boycotted. However, it is not our place to say tsk-tsk to a company that is only acting within the rules that we have regarding elections.

And while it is a problem of our campaign finance system, it is also a problem of the electorate that listened to a narrow-viewed group of people that were running ads from a very particular slant.

So the Opinion:
1. Don't focus on recusal - that's not the whole issue, that's a symptom. The fact that this justice so badly judged the situation should mean his ass gets booted in the next election and it is an unfortunate circumstance of the situation. Instead, why not stop the process that leads to such partiality and limit 527 action / campaign financing by small groups with big mouths. Which leads to option 2;
2. Fix the campaign finance laws / Don't elect judges - preferably the first as that can also affect our purchasing of Governors, Legislators and other elected officials and electing judges is not entirely a bad thing as it allows for flexibility in the judiciary;
Or 3. Pray that voters spend a little more time looking at where a message is coming from - this is much less likely to come to fruition, so back to option 2.

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Today's Quote
"Even Sheep should have brains enough not to follow the wolf."
Joseph Goodfield